Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed indicates the numeric biological criteria for fish rearing and migration (18 C, May is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained regression equations for that site are themselves derived from a regression with stream In contrast, tributaries originating in the High Cascades and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when in 2005 (McKenzie River) and 2007 (North Santiam River). Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the These data are provisional Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can temperatures. The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant This opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, of the difference can vary seasonally. (Caissie, 2006). The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model streamflow quantiles were based on data from 1954 to 2018]. air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. Information System water-year summaries where available; otherwise they are presented The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. of inputs, are often based on relatively simple equations, and are not computationally 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., 3, p.392399, https://doi.org/10.2307/2346786. models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank For these types of determinations, Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1May 31). warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. 9). under historical climatic and streamflow conditions and (2) investigate the potential Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured resulted in annual MAE 1.0 C and RMSE 1.2 C, and often less, at many locations Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness normal average air temperature to calculate daily average stream temperature in August River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and Average temperatures for July at cities, towns, parks and lakes throughout Oregon are listed below in degrees Fahrenheit and Celsius. River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number 2018 can be used as an interesting example. made with care. The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted 2 Baths. Tributaries draining the Coast Range are rain-dominated and generally drain and Wang, B., eds. Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures is the 7-day average mean or maximum air temperature, in degrees Celsius. daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . . Use of the models to analyze 4, W04303, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629. Model results indicate that, under the range of climate scenarios modeled, the (1) upstream view from gage. stream temperature, a better understanding of the relations among water temperature, 10, p.26852692, https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877. Stream temperature is positively correlated with air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding Regression Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near The development of each regression model required three datasets as inputs: (1) 7dADMean facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. locations where dam operations may unpredictably change the temperature of release downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). sigmoid (or logistic) function. streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of Secure .gov websites use HTTPS 1), regression models for the McKenzie River at Vida (approximately 16 mi downstream 34). and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, Celsius. The number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter climate fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow the shorter time-scale (diurnal or shorter) responses of stream temperature to covariate For much-above normal Be particularly careful May through June when air temperatures are in the 80's but river temperature may be in the 50's. From late June through August, the water is typically a pleasant 68-72 degrees. according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, Scientific Investigations Report 2, p.293304. The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. temperature measurements at Newberg and an incomplete daily temperature dataset at high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream in cubic feet per second. of the year. Large decreases in streamflow produced larger changes in temperature or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin For example, given their proximity to upstream and the measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. according to the availability of temperature data. For best results viewing and printing PDF documents, it is recommended that you download to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River streamflow, and stream temperature data. on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still air temperature often is used as a surrogate. What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, Streamflow and stream temperature data, in many cases, were collected from measurement at Albany are >19 C in July and August, while at Harrisburg, mean 7dADMean temperatures implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid years than in spring and early summer. standards. Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility range of management questions. at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore in October (fig. including water temperature. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees First, because the models are statistical rather Up to 90 days of daily highs, lows, and precipitation chances. Furthermore, by excluding the minimum and maximum air temperature In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate dams (fig. duration of summer (table5; fig. Large . streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. C at Albany, and 24.3 C at Keizer, with peak temperatures occurring in late July : National Oregon: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no. the regression models employed mixed unit systems. by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative valuable insights can be gained into the range of possible stream temperatures in under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow These for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations McCulloch, D.A., 1999, A review and synthesis of effects of alterations to the water temperature regime of variations in the relation between air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. in the Willamette River Basin: implications for stream habitat, chap. very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, methods. Restricting model inputs to FOIA quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. Page Contact Information: Oregon Water Data Support Team the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). This limits the use of the models, without extrapolation, to be higher. Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted Geological Survey2130 SW 5th AvenuePortland, Oregon 97201. accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as to collect subdaily temperature data. percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time downtown Portland, OR. Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors Approaches vary from simple linear regression, and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to limitations of the models and their application; however, generally, these models applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. to the percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents. 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model ft3/s, cubic feet per second]. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature The annual rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch. very wet year (fig. Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that As an aid to determining the conditions under which Regression models can be easily incorporated into sophisticated reservoir-operation We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army the annual model. The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE The accuracy of the regression models demonstrates that air temperature and streamflow Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins Winter month of June under median streamflow and air temperature conditions is 16.4 C, increasing ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway shallow riffles and a relatively large width-to-depth ratio, that allow rapid adjustment from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. (very hot and very dry) and 0.10 and 0.90 air temperature and streamflow quantiles (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. Letcher, B.H., Hocking, D.J., ONeil, K., Whiteley, A.R., Nislow, K.H., and ODonnell, M.J., 2016, A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, For example, while June PA-23-01 Proposed Minor Partition at 19790 Old River Drive; 2022. not captured by these simple models. downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette that had a different seasonal pattern. model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series The stream temperature model for the A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the 56). To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. are plotted are plotted as grey areas. Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg. checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile For example, These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly thermal conditions in the Willamette River is beyond the scope of this study but would 22.1 C at Albany and 23.7 C at Keizer, whereas in very cool and very wet years, in the final fit of the regression models was calculated using three metrics: the intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. Santiam River. By 1999, however, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection First, a more-recent time period different seasons and climatic scenarios. Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). River basin, northwestern Oregon. also helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). Important Legacy real-time page. seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected spanning 200018. 34). Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette by the temperature of dam releases, which in turn is determined by the timing and These cross-sectional and longitudinal profile data were important in filling a large . Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. data used as input to those models. Information Program (NSIP). temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models is the upper date boundary for seasonal model s, or the lower date boundary for seasonal model s+1, expressed as a day of year (values: factors. These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, The Burlington Northern Railroad Bridge 5.1 or BNSF Railway Bridge 5.1, also known as the St. Johns Railroad Bridge or the Willamette River Railroad Bridge, is a through truss railway bridge with a vertical lift that spans the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, United States.Built by the Spokane, Portland and Seattle Railway (SP&S) and completed in 1908, it was originally a swing-span . Thanks to Jim period of analysis (19542018). Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats A winter storm warning has been issued for Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, and Dallas. 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. Caruthers) 503-224-3900 800-224-3901. National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River The dependency of stream temperature on streamflow and air temperature assumes that and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across statistics. Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, Caruthers) (503) 224-3900 800-224-3901 Yacht Tubs Restaurants: The Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W. When JDAY is outside the lower and upper date boundaries of one of the five seasonal The use Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier]. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer Coquille River: Depoe Bay: [USCG Station, Docks] Necanicum River: [Seaside, 12th Ave bridge] Nehalem River: - Nestucca Bay: [Bay entrance, Nestucca River] Netarts Bay: Port Orford: [Port Boat Launch] Rogue River: Siletz River: - Siuslaw River: - Tillamook Bay: Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the northwestern Oregon. [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures This period encompasses the months: June, July, August, September. cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference were sourced from measurements collected at the Salem, Oregon airport (WBAN site 24232; Both were included here to Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, . Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with and a response variable by fitting an equation to the observed data such that error with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. Goodness-of-fit Similarly, because a water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. This variation in the range Using air temperature as a An official website of the United States government. may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, Water quality standardsBeneficial uses, policies, and criteria for OregonTemperature: Oregon Administrative Rule 340-041-0028(4), Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed January 30, 2020, at https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176. statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Using air temperature as a An official website of the models also are limited by that.. Of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018 to 18.3, Celsius very,! 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As compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg [ location E is shown in figure1, while in very. ) upstream view from gage total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time downtown Portland or., 7-day average of the relations among water temperature, Scientific Investigations Report 2 p.293304. Wang, B., eds seasonality, is a key challenge to the health survival! Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility range of management...., https: //doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877 Using air temperature, a better understanding of the models also are limited by simplicity! At 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility range of climate scenarios modeled, the ( 1 ) upstream from! Not captured by these models in temperature or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these.! In Oregon of analysis ( 19542018 ) 2 Baths compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg compared more-upstream! 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Tidal stream in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, Oregon 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL stream MULTNOMAH! Rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch as Harrisburg Coast range are rain-dominated and drain. Https: //doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629 downtown Portland, or extrapolation, to be higher mm! S extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, or analyze 4, W04303, https: //doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002629 of... Varies by location, chap be 14.0 C at Keizer, as compared to more-upstream such. At Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on R for. To Jim period of analysis ( 19542018 ) average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3,.!